Swiss financial company UBS Group and its analysts project that Western automakers could lose up to a fifth of their global market share by 2030.
Possibly taking a large chunk of the market are upstart Chinese car manufacturers, which have bombarded buyers with affordable and cutting-edge electric vehicles (EVs).
China on the rise?
The UBS Group report from 31 August claims the 81 per cent share owned by Western car brands will plummet to 58 per cent by the decade's end.
Meanwhile, Tesla could quadruple its current market share of 2 per cent for an 8 per cent figure by 2030.
UBS is also bullish on Chinese auto giant BYD, which it says could double its market share in only seven years.
A recent teardown of the BYD Seal has revealed it uses 75 per cent in-house manufactured components. UBS says this number equates to a 25 per cent cost advantage over North American and European manufacturers. More than that, the Seal has fewer than 10 per cent foreign-made parts. It also has a 10 per cent cost advantage over Tesla Model 3 units currently made in China.
All that means BYD and presumably other Chinese manufacturers have a considerable advantage over legacy car brands.
“In our base case, the global market share of Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) will grow from 17 per cent to 33 per cent by 2030, with European OEMs seeing the biggest loss of market share. The global market share of legacy OEMs could drop from 81% to 58% between now and 2030,” UBS analyst Patrick Hummel stated.
Following the report, UBS also downgraded its projections for Volkswagen and Renault, which the company notes have been taking hits from increased Chinese competition.
Renault's market share in Europe could reportedly drop to 7 per cent from its current 10 per cent by 2030. And UBS notes Volkswagen has "ceded its first-mover advantage in EVs with execution in key areas below our expectations."
These are certainly trying times for Western car manufacturers.