Round up the troops, drain all supermarkets of their chip and dip allocations, and fence off your weekend from any possible engagements ... it's Bathurst week ladies and gents.
This year is highly likely to be a history-making one. Only three cars on the grid are piloted by a pairing of Bathurst winners. Every other entry has at least one non-winner at the helm.
There's 11 new duos, following the off-season rotational chopping and changing. There's all those debates about aero, with fresh packages on the Holdens and Nissans potentially helping them close the gap to the Fords — for a circuit that many had pegged as one the Mustang would be weaker at anyway.
Yup, it's set to be a big bloody barn-burner. And ahead of kick off on Thursday, we thought it'd be fitting to go through the full Supercars pack, one by one, and grade their chances of clinching mountain glory on Sunday afternoon.
26. Brodie Kostecki / Jake Kostecki — C
Kostecki Brothers Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 56
WILDCARD: New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Two cousins, Bathurst 1000 rookies, with a combined age of 40 between them.
Don't expect Kostecki cousins Brodie and Jake to threaten the lead pack. But, do keep an eye on them. The 'wildcard' pairing have worked harder than most to get to this point, having sacrificed their respective campaigns in the Dunlop Super2 series. In Brodie's case, that meant ripping his car apart and rebuilding it as a current-spec Holden ZB Commodore.
If they keep their noses keen and execute solid pit-stops, they could enter that last run to the flag on the lead lap. That in itself would be a mammoth achievement for two youngsters just starting their careers.
25. Jack Le Brocq / Jonathon Webb — C
Truck Assist Tekno Autosports Holden ZB Commodore, No. 19
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 1 win total
All year long Jack Le Brocq has struggled for pace. And that's a shame, because he's a very talented driver.
It's been relatively obvious to outsiders looking in that all is not well at Tekno. The results transition has been vast; from Le Brocq claiming rookie of the year status last year (in a competitive grid of rookies no less), to so far only finishing in the top 15 twice in 2019. The departure of certified engineering brainiacs Campbell Little and Adrian Burgess from the operation appears to have taken its toll, and early rumours of Le Brocq getting shuffled out of the team certainly didn't help.
Incredible to think just three seasons ago this team won the Bathurst 1000. The fact that they know how to do it, and the knowledge that Webb brings lots of experience in his owner/driver role, are two things they need to lean on.
24. Alexander Rossi / James Hinchcliffe — C
Napa Walkinshaw Andretti United Holden ZB Commodore, No. 27
WILDCARD: New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
While both wildcard entries on the grid are made up of Bathurst rookies, they couldn't be more different in their raw parts. Young kids having a crack on one hand, international motorsport superstars on the other.
Alexander Rossi and James Hinchcliffe are two of the most popular drivers in the NTT IndyCar Series. Rossi is a winner of America's equivalent of the Bathurst 1000, and Hinchcliffe a pole-sitter. They're undoubtedly packed to the brim with talent, but these cars will be incredibly foreign to them — more so Rossi, given that Hinchcliffe raced at one of the 'international co-driver' Gold Coast 600 years ago. Rossi's only time behind the wheel so far was a test at Winton Raceway last week.
There's an established record of overseas drivers struggling to adapt to both these cars and the Mount Panorama circuit. But never say never. Rickard Rydell and Mattias Eckstrom bucked the trend, and you just never know if these two will follow.
23. Macauley Jones / Dean Canto — C
Team Cooldrive Brad Jones Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 21
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
It's been a learning debut season for Macauley Jones. But from a huge crash at the series opener he's shown plenty of growth. His strongest performance was at Winton, a place he's very familiar with given that it's his team's test track. And, having raced at Bathurst before in the main game will give him some quiet extra confidence. Regular Super2 viewers will know how close he was to winning there last year in the feeder class.
Jones is surrounded by great role models, and for the endurance campaign he gains another in Dean Canto. One of the sharpest co-drivers in the pack, he'll be a huge resource for Jones to sponge off as the weekend progresses.
A top 10 chance if they play all their cards right, with a bit of good luck and adverse weather along the way.
22. Todd Hazelwood / Jack Smith — C
SP Tools Matt Stone Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 35
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
If this was a race decided by looks, the Matt Stone Racing squad would have it locked down. Their Shane van Gisbergen-esque 'retro' SP Tools throwback livery looks a million bucks.
Hazelwood's had a breakout season with numerous appearances in the top-10 shootout and a stunning fifth-place last time out at Pukekohe. He's joined by Super2 regular Jack Smith — a driver that's improved leaps and bounds in the last few seasons. He's been keeping sharp with regular Supercars appearances as a wildcard throughout the season.
That said, his co-driver pace remains unproven — especially considering that this will be his first time in a Triple Eight-built Commodore, and also when contrasted with the experience of a Canto or a Webb.
21. Simona De Silvestro / Alex Rullo — C+
Harvey Norman Kelly Racing Nissan Altima, No. 78
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Hazelwood wasn't alone in claiming a career-best result in the last race at Pukekohe. Two spots behind, Simona De Silvestro finished seventh. It was her second career top 10, but in an alternate universe it would've been her third.
Two years ago she was on target for a seventh at Bathurst after a stellar race. But a crash in the dying laps caused by a spin on the slippery front straight ripple strip cost her. In the absence of a result, what the day underlined was that Bathurst is a strong circuit for De Silvestro. It's by far the track she has the most experience with, and a new wave of aero upgrades to the Nissan might help make up some of that car's noted lack of grunt down Conrod and up Mountain Straight.
De Silvestro is paired with Alex Rullo for the second year in a row. Although he hasn't had many miles in V8s this year (having elected to run in the Australian TCR Series instead of returning to Super2), he's nonetheless shown himself to be a solid driver. Especially in the Altima; the platform with which he's scored his best results.
20. Garry Jacobson / Dean Fiore — C+
Rabble.Club Kelly Racing Nissan Altima, No. 3
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
While this is a newer pairing for Kelly Racing than the combination of De Silvestro and Rullo, there's a few good reasons to keep an eye on the Nissan of Garry Jacobson and Dean Fiore.
Both drivers have proven their worth at Bathurst. This will be Jacobson's first 1000 as the lead driver, after solid performances as co-driver to Jason Bright in 2017 and Rick Kelly last year. That stand-out 2017 drive in particular was very impressive, given that it was the young gun's debut at the circuit and considering the adverse conditions. And, as opposed to most of the other tracks he's competed at this season as a main game rookie, he's already experienced the pressure and challenge of Mount Panorama.
Fiore meanwhile is incredibly dependable, and won the wild Super2 race at Bathurst last year. Keep an eye on these guys. If the car is quick straight away in practice, they might be on to threaten the top 10.
19. Richie Stanaway / Chris Pither — C+
Boost Mobile Garry Rogers Motorsport Holden ZB Commodore, No. 33
Reunited pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
The only all-Kiwi combination on the grid comes with massive potential. Richie Stanaway has excelled at Bathurst in the past (particularly in the wet), and Chris Pither's results speak for themselves. Sixth last year and fourth the year prior were grand achievements in relatively unfancied cars.
The question mark here is whether Stanaway will be able to unlock the speed of his No. 33 Holden Commodore early in the week. He hits this weekend's racing with some momentum, having scored two top 10s at Pukekohe. But it's hard to deny that the balance of the season has been a struggle for the 27-year-old. A mid-season hiatus prompted by a lingering neck injury that returned at Winton Raceway didn't help, either.
Ideally, this combination would be placed some five spots higher. The talent to spring a surprise is unquestioned.
18. Tim Slade / Ash Walsh — B-
Freightliner Brad Jones Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 14
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Last year Tim Slade shadowed teammate Nick Percat on the track and ultimately in the championship results. But that has been far from the case in 2019.
While Percat has improved, Slade has slid. He sits 15th in the championship points, with an early run of momentum (which included six consecutive top 10s, including a third at Melbourne) followed by a pair of retirements and a string of mid-field finishes.
BJR often lift as an operation at Bathurst, and Slade is quick enough to challenge most on his day. Co-driver Ash Walsh is race fit, having been a regular (and a race winner) in this season's Super2 series. Staying away from black cats and ladders should be a top priority.
17. James Golding / Richard Muscat — B-
Boost Mobile Garry Rogers Motorsport Holden ZB Commodore, No. 34
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
It's remarkable to think that young sprat James 'Bieber' Golding is lining up for his fourth Bathurst 1000 start.
For most of the season he's been the superior performer at GRM. He sits a credible 19th in the points, despite not having an 'elder statesman' teammate to guide him. Golding has always sharpened at Bathurst. On debut in the second Volvo with James Moffat, a solid probable top 10 went down the drain when the engine blew in sight of the finish. And last year he finished just two spots shy of teammate Garth Tander after spending most of the race matching the three-time winner for pace.
Co-driver Richard Muscat is perhaps the biggest question mark. He hasn't done a lot of running this year outside of Blancpain GT racing and the Liqui-Moly Bathurst 12 Hour in February. But he was impressive at GRM last year and the year before.
16. James Courtney / Jack Perkins — B-
Appliances Online Walkinshaw Andretti United Holden ZB Commodore, No. 22
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
As we said last week, James Courtney is one of the best drivers in Australian tin-top history that hasn't yet engraved his name onto the side of a Bathurst winner trophy. He came close in the Stone Brothers era, he's been in positions to challenge while at Dick Johnson Racing and the Holden Racing Team, but a win has alluded him. If anything, Bathurst now represents a bit of a bogey circuit for the Sydneysider. He hasn't claimed a top-10 finish there since 2012.
But it's not like he's forgotten how to steer at the joint. His shootout lap there last year was a loose, jaw-dropping lesson in on-the-limit driving. Jack Perkins will be a reliable hand as always, although perhaps lacks the fire and brimstone of the top-gun co-driver pack.
Their Clayton-based squad has an illustrious history at Bathurst. While most of that history ties in with years of clench-fisted dominance, equally Bathurst has emerged as a race of salvation in times of internal struggle. They'll need to be channelling the latter in car No. 22.
15. Rick Kelly / Dale Wood — B
Castrol Kelly Racing Nissan Altima, No. 15
New pairing: 0 wins together: 2 wins total
Now, here's an interesting duo to consider. Rick Kelly is a two-time Bathurst 1000 champ, while Dale Wood is one of the most underrated co-drivers on the grid. Just two years ago he steered an Erebus Motorsport Holden to fourth as a lead driver, and the year prior he recorded a rare top-10 finish for Nissan.
The issue is for this entry is that, unlike last year, the Castrol Nissan has struggled for speed. It entered the 2018 Great Race having won a race and podiumed another. Contrast that with this season, where it's not finished better than sixth, having taken four rounds to even claim a top 10.
If it's raining, Kelly will shine and this combination starts to emerge as a dark horse. But ultimate (Altima-te?) pace is where they'll struggle on paper. Hopefully the latest aero tweaks can help pop them up the order.
14. Lee Holdsworth / Thomas Randle — B
Bottle-O Tickford Racing Ford Mustang, No. 5
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Here is where we find the first of the new Ford Mustangs. The green machine has lagged behind the rest of the Mustang pack for most of the season, but Lee Holdsworth appears to have made recent inroads with his grip on the platform.
A front-row qualifying performance at Pukekohe was great to see, as was a fifth the day prior. In the first four rounds of the year he only scored three top 10s, and over the following seven rounds he's scored nine top 10s (with that safety car silliness at Pukekohe spoiling the chance of a 10th).
He's partnered by Bathurst rookie Thomas Randle, but don't think that this is Holdsworth 'drawing the Tickford short straw'. Randle is a gun, and was proven as such by a star solo wildcard weekend at The Bend in August. Holdsworth will have plenty of fire in the belly after his lean seasons with Team18, and the fact that it's been 10 years since he stood on the Bathurst podium will further fuel that fire.
13. André Heimgartner / Bryce Fullwood — B
Plus Fitness Kelly Racing Nissan Altima, No. 7
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Rick Kelly's season wouldn't look so bad if he hadn't spent most of it getting comprehensively pantsed by teammate André Heimgartner.
It's been a standout season for the Kiwi. He sits 12th in the points, having regularly planted himself in the lower portions of the top 10 (with a maiden solo podium at Phillip Island for good measure). And in Bryce Fullwood he arguably has his most qualified co-driver to date. Yes, Fullwood has only competed in the 1000 only once before. But, he's also currently the runaway Super2 series points leader — having finished in the top two in every race of the season so far bar one. In a Nissan very similar to Heimgartner's, no less.
A combination that should be aiming for the top 10 at a minimum, with the potential for better with a little bad luck for others.
12. Anton de Pasquale / Will Brown — B
Penrite Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 99
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
These two youngsters are going to be very, very quick. They were last year, and there's no reason to doubt that they won't be again.
De Pasquale has had a solid sophomore season, having earned two podiums and ingrained himself as a frequent top-10 driver. Brown meanwhile has just been crowned Australia's first TCR champion, after a dominant season in a Hyundai i30 N. Youthful combinations are plentiful on the Bathurst grid, but few are returning combinations like this one. The importance of that consistency cannot be underrated, especially since there's no Sandown 500 'dress rehearsal' with which to iron out the kinks.
Unforced errors were the downfall of this pairing in 2018's endurance season. Get rid of those, and they represent one of the most exciting line-ups on the grid.
11. Mark Winterbottom / Steve Richards — B
Irwin Team 18 Holden ZB Commodore, No. 18
Reunited pairing: 1 win together: 6 wins total
Rule out these two at your peril.
The last time Mark Winterbottom and Steve Richards drove together, they won. That was in 2013 with Ford's factory Tickford outfit during their peak phase. The dogfight between Winterbottom and a fast-approaching Jamie Whincup was a wonderful, tense metaphor for the rivalry the pairing enjoyed at the time. And the win kick-started a career renaissance for Richards, who's since added two more 1000km crowns to his tally.
The faces are the same and some of the personnel is the same, but for the most part this year's 'reunion' between the two drivers is very different. The car, all new for this season, has struggled for consistency. Pole at Symmons Plains underlined a positive start, but in more recent times Winterbottom's struggled to extract speed from the Irwin Commodore. The smarts of former Penske and BJR engineer Phil Keed make up some of the operation's silver lining, and compliment the driver combination's experience.
If these two were in a Mustang or in a more fancied Holden, they would be outright contenders.
10. Scott Pye / Warren Luff — B+
Winning Appliances Walkinshaw Andretti United Holden ZB Commodore, No. 2
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Compared to last season, this year has been a bit of a shocker for Scott Pye. And the recent collapse of former primary sponsor Mega Limited, plus questions of his future at the team have placed Pye under quite the speculative microscope lately. It feels like a set-up for some prime quality retribution, and where better to do it than at Bathurst?
Pye and co-driver Warren Luff have finished second at the last two Bathurst 1000s. Say what you want about the season he's had thus far or Luff's ultimate race pace compared to a Lowndes or a Tander, the results speak for themselves. As we mentioned before, this is a team with a rich history at Bathurst. They know how to claim results here, even in dire moments.
The obvious weakness here, like with Courtney and Winterbottom, has been a lack of season-long consistency for Pye. A starting position in the top 10 will give them a sniff. If they can do that then stay in touch with the leaders for the first four hours, they're on.
9. Will Davison / Alex Davison — B+
Milwaukee 23Red Tickford Racing Ford Mustang, No. 23
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 2 wins total
The last time a pair of brothers won at Bathurst, it was the 2-litre race in 1997 — Geoff and David Brabham in a factory BMW 320i. This, perhaps, is the best chance yet for that cute little stat to repeat itself.
The brothers Davison have raced together at the mountain three times before, with the best result of fourth in 2014. But, this year is a little different. In two of those past years, they shared a somewhat under-cooked Mercedes-AMG E63. And last year they shared a Ford Falcon FG-X that everyone in the Tickford Racing fold was struggling with at the time.
Now, they're together in a proven and quick car. Will has scored two podiums this year, and sits hot on the heels of Tickford's theoretical number two driver. Alex hasn't had much time behind the wheel, but is renowned for putting in sturdy performances. A family flavoured combo that's capable of creating upset.
8. Fabian Coulthard / Tony D'Alberto — A-
Shell V-Power DJR Team Penske Ford Mustang, No. 12
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
A lot has been made of Fabian Coulthard's history for bad luck at Bathurst. But really, it hasn't been about bad luck so much in recent times as it has a simple lack of raw, nasty speed.
The spectacular crash he had on lap one — the crash that features in all the promo material and flashy introductions — was nine whole years ago. In the last six years he's had one lone podium. His early weekend pace is always there, or thereabouts. And the same goes for loyal sidekick Tony D'Alberto.
It almost has the feel of a ticking time-bomb, like some kind of result is just around the corner. Key to a big result for the No. 12 car is that they don't get stuck 'queued' behind their stablemate during pit-stop cycles.
7. Cameron Waters / Michael Caruso — A-
Monster Energy Tickford Racing Ford Mustang, No. 6
New pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
Michael Caruso is probably one of the three best co-drivers on this year's Bathurst grid, which makes the Monster Mustang a proper bonafide contender this year.
Cam Waters has been rapid all season long. Consistency has been his problem, but of course that doesn't matter if Mount Panorama just happens to be one of those rounds where you're on a high instead of buried in a dip.
What makes this combination particularly fascinating is that both drivers are noted fighters. Neither is afraid to take risk and be daring. If the race comes down to a fistfight at the end, and these two are in the mix... watch them. They'll be swinging.
6. Nick Percat / Tim Blanchard — A-
Mobil 1 Brad Jones Racing Holden ZB Commodore, No. 8
New pairing: 0 wins together: 1 win total
My one big personal dark horse is this combination.
Surely nobody has made more passing moves this year than Nick Percat. Admittedly, quite a lot of that fact is down to his occasionally shoddy efforts in qualifying. Still, the 31-year-old approaches Bathurst with plenty of momentum. He's comfortably BJR's quickest driver this year, and is currently the fourth-best Holden in the points.
It's not just theoretical, either. Percat's Bathurst record is very impressive. Over eight starts he's finished in the top quartet four times. This includes his win on debut with Tander in 2011 and an against the odds podium with minnow team LD Motorsport in 2016.
Tim Blanchard may not seem like a star-signing as Percat's co-driver, but don't underestimate him. He's always been a strong performer at Bathurst, and he showed he's still got it in his Barbagallo wildcard appearance and in his Super2 cameo showing. This is a car to watch.
5. Chaz Mostert / James Moffat — A
Supercheap Auto Tickford Racing Ford Mustang, No. 55
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 1 win total
Now we're getting into the proper meat of the pack. Chaz Mostert is a hungry racer, paired with a very speedy co-driver in James Moffat, and poised in a car that's been quick all season long.
The popular Melbournite approaches Bathurst with a mountain of momentum. Sure he hasn't won since the Melbourne Formula 1 round, but that's not to say he hasn't been fast. In the last 10 races he's been on the podium seven times. His Bathurst results since winning in 2014 have been a bit all over the place, but it can't be ignored that Tickford's Falcon FG-X package was lacking. Not so with the Mustang.
Moffat is an eccentric behind the wheel. He will be one of the few co-drivers that challenges other drivers on-track and poses bold moves. This will give the Supercheap crew flexibility with driver strategy others could only hope for.
4. David Reynolds / Luke Youlden — A
Penrite Erebus Motorsport Holden ZB Commodore, No. 9
Returning pairing: 1 win together: 1 win total
Only three combinations on the grid have won the Bathurst 1000 together before, and this is one of them.
In an alternative universe, David Reynolds and Luke Youlden would be two-time Bathurst champions. They certainly had the car speed and strategy last year to lock in an unlikely second win for the plucky Erebus Motorsport mob. But, late severe cramps and dehydration spoiled the party.
Reynolds is lovably silly outside of the car, but is deeply methodical inside it. That approach seems to suit Bathurst. Youlden will be quick, but perhaps not as daring as the aforementioned Moffat or the names below. This will be his 20th Bathurst start (half of those resulted in top 10s), and arguably he's never been better.
Less wins this year compared to last will be hurting the team. But, Reynolds, Youlden, and engineer Alistair McVean (the dry Yin to Reynolds' funny bone Yang) know how to rise to the occasion.
3. Scott McLaughlin / Alex Premat — A
Shell V-Power DJR Team Penske Ford Mustang, No. 17
Returning pairing: 0 wins together: 0 wins total
You can just about stop the music and give Scott McLaughlin this year's Supercars Championship crown now. His points lead is almost insurmountable, after a history-making season. Seventeen wins so far, and he's almost certainly not done yet.
So, why put him third in the queue instead of first? Well, there's a few reasons. The Mustang is perhaps not going to be as dominant at Bathurst. It's likely to not be as good with fuel economy as the Holden, either. And, while McLaughlin and DJR Team Penske have won plenty this year, you could argue that they're yet to actually contend for a Bathurst 1000 win yet.
Most will zero in on McLaughlin's teammate Alex Premat as another missing piece in the puzzle. And yet, despite rarely driving anything else these days, he remains razor sharp. Expect this car to scoop up pole position on Saturday.
Sunday? We'll see.
2. Shane van Gisbergen / Garth Tander — A+
Red Bull Holden Racing Team Holden ZB Commodore, No. 97
New pairing: 0 wins together: 3 wins total
Shane van Gisbergen has had plenty of exceptional co-drivers over the years. But, with respect in particular to Premat and Earl Bamber (the latter having been a surprise star last year), none have ever been quite as good a fit on paper as Garth Tander.
After getting his marching orders from GRM at the end of last season, Tander was almost instantaneously snapped up by Red Bull to join van Gisbergen. It's a master stroke in theory. Both are renowned for being fierce competitors, and critically both are roughly the same height.
'SVG hasn't won at Bathurst yet, but it's not for a lack of trying. He came within a few tenths in 2016, seemingly passed the whole field twice in 2017, and arguably had the whole thing in the bag in 2014 until a starter motor failure in his last stop. Every year we intro The Great Race by saying that 'this is van Gisbergen's best chance yet'. We really mean it this time.
1. Jamie Whincup / Craig Lowndes — A+
Red Bull Holden Racing Team Holden ZB Commodore, No. 888
Reunited pairing: 3 wins together: 11 wins total
Placing Jamie Whincup and Craig Lowndes over the sister van Gisbergen/Tander combination may seem strange at first. Namely if you consider that van Gisbergen has regularly been the quicker pilot this season with almost a one-round advantage in the points.
But, it's Bathurst. Experience comes to the fore, and there's no hiding the history that Whincup and Lowndes have together at this circuit. Those three wins in three consecutive years might have been just over 10 years ago now, but nobody else in the Supercars era has come remotely close to repeating that feat.
Whincup will be as hungry as he's ever been, given that this has been one of his worst seasons on the numbers (and following his Pukekohe safety-car saga). Lowndes meanwhile will be Tander's equal, having only retired at the end of last season. And, may I remind you, that he's also a defending Bathurst champion.