Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to rise by 30% in 2025, reaching an estimated 15.1 million units, according to analysts at S&P Global Mobility.
This growth would increase the category's global market share to 16.7%, up from a projected 13.2% in 2024, despite some automakers scaling back on their electrification plans in favour of hybrid models.
While EV adoption faces headwinds in certain regions, industry experts remain optimistic about the sector's long-term growth. The projected figures suggest sustained demand, even as manufacturers adjust their strategies amid market uncertainties.
Growth in EV adoption will vary significantly across global markets.
India is set to experience a 117% year-on-year increase, with EVs accounting for 7.5% of total vehicle sales in 2025. This surge highlights the country's ongoing efforts to improve infrastructure and policy incentives.
In the United States, EV sales are predicted to grow by 36%, capturing an 11.2% market share. However, analysts highlight that the trajectory will largely depend on government policies, including potential changes to EV tax credits and tariffs under the incoming administration.
China remains the frontrunner in EV adoption, with electric cars expected to make up 29.7% of the market in 2025. However, the pace of growth is slowing, with a predicted year-on-year increase of 20%.
Analysts expect EVs to outsell internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in China for the first time next year, surpassing government targets.
Despite robust projections, the market faces challenges. Oversupply, fierce competition, and price wars could force many smaller domestic brands out of the market.
Additionally, foreign automakers continue to lose market share, with their share dropping from 64% in 2020 to just 37% in 2024.
In Europe, EV sales are projected to rise by 43%, securing a 20.4% market share in 2025. While countries like Germany face sluggish demand due to subsidy cuts, other markets in Western and Central Europe are expected to offset these declines.
Automakers, particularly in Germany, face significant challenges, including proposed factory closures and potential job cuts. However, sustained growth in the broader European market suggests resilience in the face of these hurdles.
The 2025 EV sales forecast paints an optimistic picture, with significant regional variations shaping the global landscape. While China and Europe remain dominant players, India's rapid growth and the US's policy-driven market will be key areas to watch.